It was 60 days prior that the Villa attacker stood on the Sunderland turf, looking confused while the Villa manager scolded him over not reading a penetrating pass. At that point, as the club failed to win in six, the question was if his performances were a sign or the source of the team's wider issues.
“As Rogers swept in his second… Emery ripped off his thick padded coat, spread his arms and roared.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. When the England international drilled in his second strike to reinstate his side's advantage, Emery ripped off his coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to a 10th successive win and despite not winning their initial half-dozen fixtures, are somehow just three points behind pace-setters Arsenal.
Is Aston Villa Serious Challengers?
This is a rather hard query to resolve. History, the perceived status of Villa, argues against it. Moreover, they've rarely been completely commanding in many games, despite the fact the positive results have accumulated.
Per the data, twice all season has the side registered an xG significantly higher than the opposition. For a side that have just won 10 in a row, they appear weirdly vulnerable – however currently the fine lines are swinging for them.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent before hoping their star man to rescue them with a couple of crisp finishes. This occurred at Leeds, it transpired against West Ham, and again versus Manchester United.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, bent just inside the post from the corner of the box. For his second proved to be a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Can It Last?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opponents had more shots and more direct attempts. The team has won each of their last eight by a single goal. They have allowed goals in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction may well be the most significant challenge Villa have to face over the coming weeks. Rogers, in all likelihood, will not continue to thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
A Case for Belief
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Important figures might still return to peak condition.
- The main striker could start scoring again.
- Jadon Sancho might become the performer he resembled during his peak.
- Tyrone Mings and Pau Torres are due to return from injury, strengthening a sometimes shaky defensive unit.
Perhaps there is in that the seeds of a title challenge, yet it seems unlikely can continue to depend solely on Morgan Rogers.
Relishing the Unlikely
But then, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, few could imagine the young forward as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit and appearing as an essential player for the national team.
The current run must be cherished for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When the match-winner faced the North End at the final whistle conducting the cheers, it was clear to be relishing every moment. Which he fully merits. These spells are uncommon in the sport and must be appreciated.
